A New Captain at the Helm
In the wake of an irreplaceable loss, Kenya's Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is navigating its most challenging transition. The party's founding leader, Raila Odinga, passed away on October 15, 2025 . In a move to provide stability, the party's National Executive Committee (NEC) appointed Siaya Senator Dr. Oburu Oginga, Raila's elder brother, as the acting party leader .
Oburu officially assumed the role on October 27, marking his first day at the party's headquarters, Chungwa House, where he was received by key officials including Secretary General Edwin Sifuna and Raila's daughter, Ruth Odinga . His appointment is intended to be interim, providing symbolic continuity from the Odinga family as the party charts its future without its iconic leader .
The Great Divide: ODM's Internal Power Struggle
The most pressing question facing Oburu Oginga is the party's strategy for the 2027 General Election. The party is deeply fractured between two clear camps: those advocating for a coalition with President William Ruto and those insisting ODM must field its own presidential candidate.
Oburu officially assumed the role on October 27, marking his first day at the party's headquarters, Chungwa House, where he was received by key officials including Secretary General Edwin Sifuna and Raila's daughter, Ruth Odinga . His appointment is intended to be interim, providing symbolic continuity from the Odinga family as the party charts its future without its iconic leader .
The Great Divide: ODM's Internal Power Struggle
The most pressing question facing Oburu Oginga is the party's strategy for the 2027 General Election. The party is deeply fractured between two clear camps: those advocating for a coalition with President William Ruto and those insisting ODM must field its own presidential candidate.
- The Pro-Coalition Faction: This group, which includes several ODM legislators, argues that the party is not currently in a position to successfully contest the presidency on its own . Alego Usonga legislator Samuel Atandi has been vocal, stating, "ODM as a party is not ready to present a presidential candidate in the 2027 general election" . This faction points to the existing "broad-based government"—a political deal struck between President Ruto and the late Raila Odinga that saw opposition figures join the cabinet—as the foundation to build upon . They have openly endorsed supporting President Ruto's re-election bid .
- The Go-It-Alone Faction: Led by party Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, this camp is pushing for ODM to reclaim its status as a formidable opposition force and present its own candidate for president . Sifuna has publicly dismissed claims that the party will back Ruto in 2027, reminding members that in his last public appearance, Raila Odinga himself hinted that ODM still had the option to field a candidate, clarifying that the initial Memorandum of Understanding with Ruto did not cover the 2027 elections .
This internal conflict was palpable during Raila Odinga's funeral service, highlighting the ideological rifts that Oburu must now manage .
The Ruto Factor and a Nation in Transition
President William Ruto finds his political calculus significantly altered by Raila's death. The broad-based government had banked on Raila's support to create a "formidable" coalition for 2027 . With his main partner gone, Ruto must now convince the rest of ODM's leadership to stick with the coalition .
Ruto has publicly committed to ensuring that "ODM will either form the next government or be a part of the next government," vowing not to let the party be alienated into a weak opposition . However, as one analyst noted, "Raila is the one who was able to hold at bay the generation that was pushing for Ruto’s ouster," suggesting the President may be a major casualty of Raila's loss .
Beyond 2027: The Battle for ODM's Soul and Kenya's Opposition
The power struggle within ODM extends beyond the immediate election strategy to the very soul of the party and its future leadership.
- The Succession Question: Oburu Oginga has cautioned against the idea of a handpicked "Luo kingpin" to replace his brother. He believes that a new leader will "sprout out of nowhere like a mushroom," emerging naturally from among the party's younger politicians rather than from his own generation . This has opened the field for ambitious younger MPs like Babu Owino, who is already positioning himself for a larger role, eyeing the Nairobi gubernatorial seat and shaping the party's next chapter .
- A Vacuum in Kenyan Politics: Raila Odinga's absence creates a monumental vacuum not just in ODM but in Kenya's entire political landscape . For decades, he was the standard-bearer for dissent and the central figure around which opposition forces gathered. Analysts warn that without his "gravitational pull," ideological and factional lines may intensify, potentially leading to a period of political fragmentation . Willis Otieno, a former campaign manager for Raila, described the impact as "phenomenal," stating, "We are going to see a tectonic shift in our politics based on the vacuum caused by the absence of the enigma" .
What Lies on the Horizon
The coming months will be critical for Oburu Oginga and the ODM party. The party is preparing for its 20th-anniversary celebrations, which will serve as a key test of unity and a platform for various factions to showcase their influence . All eyes will be on how the acting leader navigates the contentious debates and whether he can hold the party together.
The situation presents a moment of reckoning for ODM. The party must either find a way to unite under a new vision or risk fracturing under the weight of its internal contradictions. The decisions made within the walls of Chungwa House will not only determine the fate of Kenya's largest opposition party but will also profoundly shape the political trajectory of the nation as it approaches the 2027 elections
