For the first time in nearly a decade, the narrative surrounding Pep Guardiola at Manchester City has shifted from total dominance to a tense period of transition and existential questions. After a trophyless 2024/25 campaign—his first since his debut season—the Catalan manager’s future, despite a recent contract extension, is less about if he will win, and more about when he will leave.
Guardiola put pen to paper on an extension in November 2024, committing him to the club until June 2027, a tenure that will see him complete over a decade at the Etihad. Yet, early struggles this 2025/26 season, combined with an ambitious squad overhaul, suggest that this extended commitment is not a guarantee of stability, but rather the beginning of a meticulously planned "post-Pep" succession phase.
The Context: A Trophyless Season and a Tactical Rebirth
Last season’s downturn, where City finished third in the Premier League and lost the FA Cup final, was a shock to the system. The causes were identified: a reliance on an ageing core, the tactical chasm left by key injuries (most notably Rodri), and an eventual burnout after years of intense success.
Guardiola's response was not a gentle refresh, but a dramatic, expensive, and high-risk overhaul. The club sanctioned approximately £320 million in spending in 2025 alone, bringing in major new talents like goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma, midfielders Nico González and Tijjani Reijnders, and forward Omar Marmoush. Crucially, this period also saw the departure of club legend Kevin De Bruyne and other experienced Treble winners.
The Tactical Shift: The new squad necessitated a new approach, reportedly influenced by the arrival of former Liverpool assistant manager, Pep Lijnders.
- From Possession to Verticality: The shift is towards a more vertical, transitional, and intense counter-pressing style, moving away from the slow, suffocating "resting football" that once defined their dominance.
- The Adjustment Period: New signings, coupled with the injury return of Ballon d'Or winner, have made for an unsettled start to the 2025/26 campaign. City's familiar vulnerabilities have re-emerged, particularly in central midfield where the new players are yet to fully master the required positional control and defensive security. The process, as Guardiola himself has hinted, requires patience.
The Contract: A Break, Not a Retirement
Guardiola's commitment until 2027 is significant, but his public pronouncements have consistently framed this as a final chapter before an inevitable break from the game.
“After my contract with City, I’m going to stop. I am sure. I don’t know if I’m going to retire, but I’m going to take a break.”
— Pep Guardiola, May 2025
This statement confirms two things for the City hierarchy: the search for his successor is not a distant summer job but an active, strategic priority, and 2027 represents the end of an era, not a negotiation starting point. The new contract is arguably less about Pep's personal desire to stay and more about ensuring he can oversee the necessary squad transition and deliver one last major trophy haul.
The Succession Plan: A Shortlist of Philosophers
The new Director of Football, Hugo Viana, is now tasked with managing the most critical succession plan in the club’s history. The replacement will need to embody the club's "City Football Group" (CFG) philosophy—high-possession, attacking football—to ensure a smooth handover.
The current shortlist of potential successors is a fascinating blend of former players and philosophical disciples:
- Xabi Alonso (Bayer Leverkusen): The overwhelming favourite and a manager who "ticks every box." Alonso’s tactical success at Leverkusen, coupled with his high-possession style and Bundesliga "Invincibles" title, makes him the ideal candidate. City's interest is concrete, but they face intense competition from Real Madrid.
- Mikel Arteta (Arsenal): The "prodigal son" narrative remains strong. As a former City assistant, Arteta deeply understands the club's principles. Despite his success at Arsenal, some in the City hierarchy reportedly view him as a potential long-term choice, particularly given his strong head-to-head record against Guardiola.
- Cesc Fàbregas (Como): A surprise new name on the shortlist. Fàbregas's management start at Como in Serie A has impressed, and his La Masia grounding aligns with the CFG's identity. He represents a high-potential, tactically literate young manager.
- Julian Nagelsmann (Germany): A long-time favourite of Guardiola. Nagelsmann’s tactical innovation and young age make him a strong fit for a long-term project, but his commitment to the Germany national team until the 2026 World Cup makes his immediate availability highly unlikely.
Conclusion: The Race Against Time
Guardiola’s future is no longer a source of speculation; it is a fixed date on the calendar. The next 18 months will be defined by two parallel and conflicting objectives:
- Guardiola’s Quest for the ‘Last Dance’: He must succeed in integrating his new signings, re-establish City’s defensive control, and demonstrate that he still possesses the "hunger" to win. Early results are concerning, and pundits have openly questioned if his magic touch has started to fade.
- CFG's Imperative to Secure a Successor: The hierarchy is in a race against time to secure a top-tier manager—ideally Alonso—who can step in seamlessly. The entire project rests on making a choice that secures the club's philosophical identity for the next decade.
Should Guardiola deliver one or two more major trophies, his departure in 2027 will be a celebrated handover. Should the struggles of early 2025/26 continue, the final years of his contract will be a difficult period of transition, where the discussion will turn from the next trophy to the next manager. The clock is ticking on the most successful managerial era in the club's history
